Jameis Winston is set up for a career year and is the classic late round high upside QB I like to target. Historically, Winston has been a bit of a gunslinger, in 2018 he had an ADOT of 11.1 (1st) and threw an interception every 27 attempts (3rd worst). While this may not be ideal in real life, we’re playing fantasy, and we want aggressive quarterbacks who push the ball down the field. 2019 is a contract year for Winston so expect him to be focused, surrounded by elite weapons (Evans, Godwin, Howard), and set up for success in a Bruce Arians vertical passing offense. Top 5 QB is in Winston’s range of outcomes.
Christian Kirk is my No.1 breakout candidate of 2019. Kirk played well as a rookie despite the anemic offense around him. In 12 games, he had a dominator rating of 26.8-percent (No. 23) and was fifth in target premium at +39.9. His 89.6-percent true catch rate was 12th best among all wideouts. Kirk and Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense are a perfect fit for each other. Kirk thrives at creating space in the short and intermediate areas of the field and will play both outside and in the slot. Kirk will lead Arizona in targets as the No.1 option in a high-volume passing game. A season of 120 targets, 80 receptions, and over 1,000 yards is a realistic projectiont. That level of production would be a steal at current ADP. I am pressing the button on Kirk every time the seventh or eighth round comes along, sometimes earlier if necessary. The hype is real and the breakout is coming.
I find myself targeting Mike Williams in all of my 2019 drafts. He’s got incredible upside given his red zone presence and opportunity in a high-powered offense. In 2018, Williams ranked 4th in fantasy points from inside the 20 yard line and 3rd from inside the 10 and 5 yard line. He’ll see increased target volume in 2019 and his touchdown upside is mouth watering!
I expect a big time feature role from Dalvin Cook going into his third season. In 15 career games, Cook totaled almost 14 carries and 4.5 targets per game. Despite a history of injuries, including a torn ACL, Cook is not expected to share carries. The Vikings have discussed their intention to place more of a focus on the running game. This was further emphasized by replacing offensive coordinator John DeFilippo with running back guru coach Gary Kubiak. Last season their offensive line was dreadful, causing them to rely on the passing game. Upgrades to the line include draft picks Dru Samia and Garrett Bradbury, along with the signing of Josh Kline. All reports indicate Cook is fully healthy, which should lead to a big season where he exceeds his current ADP of 18.
Curtis Samuel enters 2019 as a third year pro at just 23 years old. With Devin Funchess now in Indianapolis it is just Samuel and D.J. Moore left to dominate wide receiver targets in Carolina. With Moore likely to spend more time in the slot, Samuel, and his 100th-percentile speed (4.31 40-yard dash), will be Cam Newton’s deep threat with sneaky double digit touchdown capability given the number of red zone and end zone targets he received in limited opportunities last season. Samuel’s ADP on FFPC is outside the 11th round, but I’m snagging him in the late-8th or 9th rounds given his upside.