Ask a consultant – Who are you targeting this year?

Ask a consultant – Who are you targeting this year?

Patrick Murphy

@FFTheKing

Jameis Winston is set up for a career year and is the classic late round high upside QB I like to target.  Historically, Winston has been a bit of a gunslinger, in 2018 he had an ADOT of 11.1 (1st) and threw an interception every 27 attempts (3rd worst).  While this may not be ideal in real life, we’re playing fantasy, and we want aggressive quarterbacks who push the ball down the field.  2019 is a contract year for Winston so expect him to be focused, surrounded by elite weapons (Evans, Godwin, Howard), and set up for success in a Bruce Arians vertical passing offense.  Top 5 QB is in Winston’s range of outcomes.

Alex Johnson

@A_JohnsonFF

Christian Kirk is my No.1 breakout candidate of 2019. Kirk played well as a rookie despite the anemic offense around him. In 12 games, he had a dominator rating of 26.8-percent (No. 23) and was fifth in target premium at +39.9. His 89.6-percent true catch rate was 12th best among all wideouts. Kirk and Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense are a perfect fit for each other. Kirk thrives at creating space in the short and intermediate areas of the field and will play both outside and in the slot. Kirk will lead Arizona in targets as the No.1 option in a high-volume passing game.  A season of 120 targets, 80 receptions, and over 1,000 yards is a realistic projectiont. That level of production would be a steal at current ADP. I am pressing the button on Kirk every time the seventh or eighth round comes along, sometimes earlier if necessary. The hype is real and the breakout is coming.

Hilal Jihad Chami

@HJChami

Hilal’s favorite fantasy football player value at ADP this season is Saints RB Latavius Murray. 
 
To understand Latavius Murray’s new role, look no further than Mark Ingram. In PPR, former Saints RB Mark Ingram finished as RB16, RB8, RB9, RB6, and RB20 (Weeks 5-16) in his last 5 seasons with the Saints.
 
Mark Ingram had the 6th most RB targets from 2015-2017. 
 
In the Spring of 2019, the New Orleans Saints signed Latavius Murray on a 4 year deal and let Mark Ingram walk. 
 
Latavius Murray is the perfect fit for the Mark Ingram role in New Orleans. He’s been equally as efficient as Mark Ingram in the NFL, with far worse supporting casts & opportunities, courtesy of playerprofiler.com
 
Latavius Murray ranks 4th overall in rushing TDs over the last 3 seasons. The Saints have finished Top 6 in rushing TDs in 5 straight seasons.
 
Latavius Murray is an 82nd Percentile athlete, Mark Ingram has 16th Percentile Athleticism.
 
Latavius Murray finished Top 6 in PFF Rushing Grade against stacked boxes in 2018. Mark Ingram didn’t place in the Top 10. 
 
The stage is set for Latavius Murray to feast on a New Orleans Saints offense who’s team has produced the 1st Place Team Running Back PPR scoring in 6 out of the last 8 years. The other two years? 2nd Place overall Team RB finishes.
 
Latavius Murray is already impressing his new coaches with his pass-catching abilities. He’s also a powerful fantasy football RB handcuff with league winning value & upside. If Alvin Kamara misses any time at all, Latavius Murray has Top 5 RB upside. 
 
Latavius Murray is being drafted at RB38, and he has a Mark Ingram floor of RB20 with Top 5 RB upside. Get him while you still can.

Nate Hamilton

@DominateFF

I find myself targeting Mike Williams in all of my 2019 drafts. He’s got incredible upside given his red zone presence and opportunity in a high-powered offense. In 2018, Williams ranked 4th in fantasy points from inside the 20 yard line and 3rd from inside the 10 and 5 yard line. He’ll see increased target volume in 2019 and his touchdown upside is mouth watering! 

Michael Rocco

I expect a big time feature role from Dalvin Cook going into his third season. In 15 career games, Cook totaled almost 14 carries and 4.5 targets per game. Despite a history of injuries, including a torn ACL, Cook is not expected to share carries. The Vikings have discussed their intention to place more of a focus on the running game. This was further emphasized by replacing offensive coordinator John DeFilippo with running back guru coach Gary Kubiak. Last season their offensive line was dreadful, causing them to rely on the passing game. Upgrades to the line include draft picks Dru Samia and Garrett Bradbury, along with the signing of Josh Kline.  All reports indicate Cook is fully healthy, which should lead to a big season where he exceeds his current ADP of 18.

Clint Hale

@DeviantDyNASTY

Curtis Samuel enters 2019 as a third year pro at just 23 years old. With Devin Funchess now in Indianapolis it is just Samuel and D.J. Moore left to dominate wide receiver targets in Carolina. With Moore likely to spend more time in the slot, Samuel, and his 100th-percentile speed (4.31 40-yard dash), will be Cam Newton’s deep threat with sneaky double digit touchdown capability given the number of red zone and end zone targets he received in limited opportunities last season. Samuel’s ADP on FFPC is outside the 11th round, but I’m snagging him in the late-8th or 9th rounds given his upside.

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Dynasty – Players I’m Buying

Dynasty – Players I’m Buying

Leonard Fournette

Dynasty ADP - 3.6

Why he’s low:

When you’re looking for buy lows in Dynasty, you first have to understand why the fantasy community is lower on a player than you are.  In Fournette’s case, he suffered multiple hamstring injuries in his sophomore season that left him playing in only 8 games, crushing his owners fantasy prospects in the process.  In addition to that, Fournette hasn’t gotten any good press recently.  It’s been rumored the Jaguars are not happy with Fournette and are not committed to him long term.

Why i’m buying:

Fournette turned in a rookie season of 268 carries, 36 receptions, 1,342 yards, and 10 touchdowns, that doesn’t happen by chance.  Being drafted with the fourth overall pick, Fournette is an elite talent with draft capital to back it up, playing in a system that is built to run the ball (1st in team run plays in 2017).  This isn’t a projection, it already happened, go check out his rookie year game log.  The only real concern with Fournette is can he stay healthy.   I expect Fournette to fall somewhere between his healthy rookie year and his injury plagued sophomore season.  If he plays for 12 games next year he’ll maintain his value, possibly even go up in ADP.  If he plays in 16 games your looking at a first round dynasty start up pick in 2020.  Think about that, if he just stays healthy for a full season, you’re getting a first round startup pick in the third round. Time to buy.

Kyler Murray

Dynasty ADP - QB16

Why he’s low:

Traditionally rookie QBs do not produce at a high level, Mayfield was great last year and finished as QB16 on the season.  His weapons are an aging Larry Fitzgerald, unproven sophomore Christian Kirk, and a bunch of rookies.  On top of that he has one of the worst O-lines in football protecting him of which of can’t even see over because he is just 5’10”.

Why i’m buying:

Kyler Murray has one of the highest QBRs in college football history at 95.8, no need to worry if he is good at football.  While there may be a transition period as he adjusts to NFL defenses, this is typically easier for mobile quarterbacks like Kyler who ran for 1,000 yards and 12 TDs in his senior season at Oklahoma.  This mobility will mitigate his offensive line struggles as we’ve already seen for years with Russell Wilson.  The biggest reason to buy Kyler Murray is his scheme.  The new head coach for the Cardinals Kliff Kingsbury is coming from Texas Tech where he ran an Air Raid offensive system.   This means Kyler Murray is going to throw, throw, and throw some more.  Kingsbury’s had a top 10 passing offense each of 6 years at Texas Tech, including over 300 passing yards per game.  He knows how to coach quarterbacks too (Pat Mahomes and Baker Mayfield).  Kingsbury was eventually fired at Texas Tech because his defenses were awful, and if this continues at the NFL level it will only help Kyler since he’ll be forced into shootouts.  Kyler is a top 8 dynasty QB and is the best buy low in superflex formats.

Royce Freeman

Dynasty ADP - 5.7

Why he’s low:

Freeman got beat out by undrafted free agent Philip Lindsay in his rookie year.  If Lindsay isn’t going anywhere, what does this mean for Freeman’s future?  Why would we bet on Freeman to beat out undrafted Lindsay when he couldn’t do it last year after being drafted in the 3rd round?

Why i’m buying:

Lindsay is talented, but so is Freeman, and only Freeman has the profile of a feature back.   Lindsay weighed in at 184 pounds as a rookie, 184 pound running backs are not feature backs in the NFL.  Not only is he bound to get hurt, but the Broncos know Lindsay can’t sustain this type of workload.  They will give Freeman another shot at the lead back role, especially given the draft capital invested in him (3.07).  Freeman has a great prospect profile with a dominator rating 30.4%, 87th percentile speed score, and 85th percentile agility score, expect him to take the lead back role from Lindsay mid-season and not look back.

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