Harry checks every box and that’s what you’re looking for at the 1.01. Breakout age (18.7), production (43.9 Dominator rating), athleticism (134.5 SPARQ), draft capital (1st Round), and opportunity (Patriots need receivers); there isn’t anything Harry doesn’t do. Feel safe taking him at the 1.01.
The former backup to Saquon Barkley broke out onto the scene this year and followed it up by testing great at the combine (SPARQ 120.3). He has the size, production, and athleticism to be an NFL starter, and now has the opportunity to take the lead role for the Eagles behind their elite offensive line. Sanders faces competition for touches from unathletic plodders in Jordan Howard and Josh Adams; this is a competition he should and will win.
Campbell is a burner who ran a 4.31 at the combine which is tied for fastest among WRs. Campbell doesn’t possess the same deep game Isabella showed in college, but he did produce at Ohio St making his numbers a little more real. Campbell was one of the biggest winners on draft day getting selected by the Colts in the second round. Andrew Luck makes the players around him better, expect Campbell to have every opportunity to show what he can do.
Most will have Jacobs as the 1.01 due to his draft capital (1st Round) and opportunity (He’ll start for the Raiders). While this is fair and why I have him at 1.04, I have some serious concerns about his talent. Jacobs benefited from playing behind an Alabama offensive line with perfect game scripts. He was never the sole back, was average at catching the ball, and tested horribly at his pro-day. Expect an inefficient RB on a bad offense that gets 200+ touches.
Opportunity, that is what you are buying with David Montgomery. He’s not fast (4.63 40) or particularly agile (11.35 agility score), but he will be the starting running back in Chicago. The only real difference between Josh Jacobs and Montgomery is draft capital, (1st vs 3rd round) making it is much easier for the Bears to move on if Montgomery does not work out.
Talent wise, Brown is 1b to N’Keal Harry’s 1a. Brown out produced his teammate D.K. Metcalf at Ole Miss and has no red flags on his profile. The problems are draft capital and landing spot; the 2nd round isn’t great, and the Titans already have a slot receiver in Adam Humphries, Brown’s natural position. Brown is able to play all over the field, but expect him to fight for targets with Corey Davis in an offense not known for its passing attack. Brown’s short-term outlook is murky so you’re betting on the talent here.
A big time producer at Stanford who used his size to dominate college cornerbacks, Arcega-Whiteside got an ideal landing spot going to the Eagles in the second round. Arcega-Whiteside’s short-term outlook isn’t great dealing with target competition from Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffery, and DeSean Jackson, but after this year Jackson should be gone and Alshon is getting older and increasingly injury prone. Carson Wentz is the exact kind of QB Arcega-Whiteside needed, Wentz will throw up contested balls and let JJ pull them down in traffic. Expect a Chris Godwin/Courtland Sutton type rookie year, minimal production, but the dynasty stock will go up.
The UMass speedster is a burner (4.31 40), but playing at a small school makes it hard to determine if his elite production is real or not. Additionally, he’s only 5’9” with a catch radius of 9.98” making it difficult to get him the ball. Luckily, that catch radius won’t be an issue with the ultra-accurate Kyler Murray at QB. Isabela is entering what is going to be one of the most pass happy offenses in the NFL, if it clicks he could put up some big numbers.
Biggest winner of the draft, Deebo went in the 2nd round to the 49ers. Expect Kyle Shanahan to utilize his versatility and put him all over the field. Competing only with Dante Pettis for targets, expect Deebo to be a high floor, low ceiling option.
Combine all star, people who weigh 228lbs don’t run 4.33 40s, but Metcalf did just that. The concern with Metcalf is his agility (11.88 agility score) where he struggled at the combine. They’re just aren’t any elite receivers in the NFL that run 7.38 three cone drills. That being said, Metcalf can run faster in a straight line than anyone his size and he’ll have one of the most efficient passers in the NFL in Russell Wilson throwing him the ball. Expect some big games, but they may be hard to predict.
Elite two-way tight end that is going to command targets early in his rookie year, has athleticism (115.2 SPARQ), production (24% College Dominator), and draft capital (1st round). The only concern is historically TE’s can take some time to develop, making Hockenson more of a stash than a year 1 starter. Still, if he falls into your lap late in the first round you’re getting an future stud.
Kyler Murray is an elite QB prospect (95.8 QBR) that also has the ability to run the ball. Add to that he is being put into a spread offense that will have him throwing 40+ times a game and you might be looking at the next Pat Mahomes. Kliff Kingsbury’s offenses at Texas Tech consistently were near the top in the nation in passing yards and attempts. Drafting a QB early in single QB leagues seems unnecessary, but Murray checks every box.
The most athletic TE in the class and arguably the best receiver as well. Fant is a pure move TE as his blocking is a work in progress. This may limit his snaps early on depending on how he is deployed. It’s possible the Broncos commit to him as a pure receiving TE, but difficult to predict.
Physically, Butler is on another level. 6’5 and 10.75” hand size is freakish for a NFL Wide receiver. For his size he tested better than most receivers at the combine. Unfortunately, Butler wasn’t drafted until round 4 which is a crushing blow to his draft capital. He did land at the Cardinals which could become one of the most prolific pass offenses in the league. Based on his age-adjusted production (21.3 Breakout age), expect Butler to be more of a developmental prospect with big upside.
Henderson was a massive producer in college averaging 8.9 ypc, highest ever for a college RB, besting his own record from the year prior. Henderson is a plus athlete, good pass catcher, with insane production. Unfortunately, the draft was not kind to Henderson going to the Rams crushed his value as he is now firmly planted behind Todd Gurley. That being said, Gurley has some health issues of his own and the Rams drafting Henderson only confirms their concern. If Gurley misses time, Henderson could be a top 10 RB on one of the league’s most prolific offenses, I’m buying Henderson more than most.
Elite athlete (4.4 40, 133 Burst score) and pass catching back, Hill is coming to the Ravens who will lead the league in rush attempts and throw often to their running backs. Hill’s size (200lbs) doesn’t project as an every down starter, but he could be a satellite back plus in an offense that will give more than enough touches to its running backs.
Hardman is fast (4.33 40) and is the Chief’s plan to replace Tyreek Hill. Unfortunately for the Chiefs Hardman isn’t Hill and his college production (18.7% College Dominator) leaves a lot to be desired. He does have two things going for him; Draft capital (2nd Round) and Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback.
I’m not giving much respect to the first receiver off the board (1st Round), but it’s hard to see any receiver having success in the Raven’s run first offense. Lamar Jackson has not proven he can throw the ball at a NFL level. Add to that Brown’s weight (166lbs) makes him an extreme outlier for NFL success.
The clear number 3 TE, Smith is super young (20) and has solid straight-line speed. He’s far from the athlete Fant and Hockenson are, but he will have his chance to produce on the Vikings.
The Alabama product split time with Josh Jacobs in college and tested better at the combine. The issue here is opportunity, Harris will only get 5 carries a game as a backup to Sony Michel who isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
Big and fast, Boykin will have little competition at WR with the Ravens, but can Jackson get him the ball? Opportunity will be there, but the efficiency could be rough.
Big, fast receiver who gets down the field and is paired with his college QB (Haskins). McLaurin will have some big games, but he probably won’t command much of a target share based on his college profile (17th percentile college dominator). Not my type of receiver for PPR leagues, but worth a flier in best ball and standard.
The biggest draft faller, Harmon went in the 6th round to the Redskins. While the draft capital is terrible, Harmon is joining a team with little competition at receiver. Fellow rookie Terry McLaurin will certainly take some targets, and Josh Doctson may emerge, but Harmon knows how to get open and could surprise as receiver falling into Keenan Allen archetype.
I’m going to own a lot of Ryquell in the 3rd and 4th round of rookie drafts. Armstead is a fast, big back (94th percentile speed score) who will be backing up the oft injured Leonard Fournette in Jacksonville. Armstead has his flaws, he doesn’t catch the ball much and has no burst, but there is a reason the Jags picked him. Armstead is a poor man’s Fournette and fits their ground and pound system perfectly. If Fournette falls out of favor or gets injured Armstead will have a real chance to produce.