Dynasty – Players I’m Buying

Leonard Fournette

Dynasty ADP - 3.6

Why he’s low:

When you’re looking for buy lows in Dynasty, you first have to understand why the fantasy community is lower on a player than you are.  In Fournette’s case, he suffered multiple hamstring injuries in his sophomore season that left him playing in only 8 games, crushing his owners fantasy prospects in the process.  In addition to that, Fournette hasn’t gotten any good press recently.  It’s been rumored the Jaguars are not happy with Fournette and are not committed to him long term.

Why i’m buying:

Fournette turned in a rookie season of 268 carries, 36 receptions, 1,342 yards, and 10 touchdowns, that doesn’t happen by chance.  Being drafted with the fourth overall pick, Fournette is an elite talent with draft capital to back it up, playing in a system that is built to run the ball (1st in team run plays in 2017).  This isn’t a projection, it already happened, go check out his rookie year game log.  The only real concern with Fournette is can he stay healthy.   I expect Fournette to fall somewhere between his healthy rookie year and his injury plagued sophomore season.  If he plays for 12 games next year he’ll maintain his value, possibly even go up in ADP.  If he plays in 16 games your looking at a first round dynasty start up pick in 2020.  Think about that, if he just stays healthy for a full season, you’re getting a first round startup pick in the third round. Time to buy.

Kyler Murray

Dynasty ADP - QB16

Why he’s low:

Traditionally rookie QBs do not produce at a high level, Mayfield was great last year and finished as QB16 on the season.  His weapons are an aging Larry Fitzgerald, unproven sophomore Christian Kirk, and a bunch of rookies.  On top of that he has one of the worst O-lines in football protecting him of which of can’t even see over because he is just 5’10”.

Why i’m buying:

Kyler Murray has one of the highest QBRs in college football history at 95.8, no need to worry if he is good at football.  While there may be a transition period as he adjusts to NFL defenses, this is typically easier for mobile quarterbacks like Kyler who ran for 1,000 yards and 12 TDs in his senior season at Oklahoma.  This mobility will mitigate his offensive line struggles as we’ve already seen for years with Russell Wilson.  The biggest reason to buy Kyler Murray is his scheme.  The new head coach for the Cardinals Kliff Kingsbury is coming from Texas Tech where he ran an Air Raid offensive system.   This means Kyler Murray is going to throw, throw, and throw some more.  Kingsbury’s had a top 10 passing offense each of 6 years at Texas Tech, including over 300 passing yards per game.  He knows how to coach quarterbacks too (Pat Mahomes and Baker Mayfield).  Kingsbury was eventually fired at Texas Tech because his defenses were awful, and if this continues at the NFL level it will only help Kyler since he’ll be forced into shootouts.  Kyler is a top 8 dynasty QB and is the best buy low in superflex formats.

Royce Freeman

Dynasty ADP - 5.7

Why he’s low:

Freeman got beat out by undrafted free agent Philip Lindsay in his rookie year.  If Lindsay isn’t going anywhere, what does this mean for Freeman’s future?  Why would we bet on Freeman to beat out undrafted Lindsay when he couldn’t do it last year after being drafted in the 3rd round?

Why i’m buying:

Lindsay is talented, but so is Freeman, and only Freeman has the profile of a feature back.   Lindsay weighed in at 184 pounds as a rookie, 184 pound running backs are not feature backs in the NFL.  Not only is he bound to get hurt, but the Broncos know Lindsay can’t sustain this type of workload.  They will give Freeman another shot at the lead back role, especially given the draft capital invested in him (3.07).  Freeman has a great prospect profile with a dominator rating 30.4%, 87th percentile speed score, and 85th percentile agility score, expect him to take the lead back role from Lindsay mid-season and not look back.

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