Re-Draft Targets

Posted on by Patrick Murphy

Re-Draft Targets

Hilal Jihad Chami

@HJChami

Re-Draft Target – D’Andre Swift

Every year, we get ready for our fancy football drafts. We spend hours, days, weeks, months analyzing data. Then we commit to wasting our early round picks on consensus ADP players to minimize risk, when we should be leaning in on the upside and risk, not the downside and fear of each player. 
 
In 2021, D’Andre Swift was top 8 in snap share, top 3 in target share, 2nd in yards created per touch with the 3rd most receptions per game, the 4th most fantasy points per touch as a rookie in years, and he was Top 10 in RB routes run. 
 
In 2022, D’Andre Swift is looking beyond healthy, his offensive line is projected to be Top 5, and his schedule is set up for him to smash.
 
Don’t waste your 1st or 2nd Round pick on anyone else. Lean in, embrace it, go for the ultimate outcome this year. Anchor your team on the running back who’s going to win your league.

Mike Hauff

@TheFFRealist

Re-Draft Target – Kirk Cousins

While others reach for quarterbacks in the earlier rounds, Kirk Cousins is the player I will be targeting in several of my fantasy drafts. In each of the last two seasons, Cousins has been a Top-12 scoring quarterback. Even with consistent fantasy production, Cousins’ average draft position slates him as the thirteenth quarterback going off the board. The rumors around the Vikings suggest that the pass ratio will be on the rise and I intend to take full advantage of that.

Clint Hale

@DeviantDyNASTY

Re-Draft Target – Trey Lance

Trey Lance disappointed his fantasy drafters last season as Jimmy Garoppolo held onto the 49ers starting quarterback job all season. But in the three games Lance played significant snaps as a rookie he displayed his league-winning upside with his rushing ability as his 10.3 rush attempts per game over that span was second to only Lamar Jackson amongst quarterbacks. With San Francisco set to move on from Jimmy G, Lance is set up to smash in 2022 surrounded by talented weapons at all positions in George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. I’m drafting Lance and his upside in all fantasy league formats

Bradley Myers

@CBMAnalytics

Re-Draft Target – Gabriel Davis

One player I’m particularly excited about targeting in Drafts this year is Gabriel Davis. The Bills let Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley walk this year and the only competition brought in was journeyman Jameson Crowder and 5th rounder Khalil Shakir. To me, this confirms the Bills feelings towards Davis becoming a regular starter in their offense where he has only been a part-time rotational player since entering the league in 2020. Despite that, Davis has been a consistently ascending player and has been incredibly efficient in his limited playing time. He scorched the earth last postseason torching the Chiefs for a 200+ yard and 4 TD performance, the only such performance in NFL postseason history. I expect Davis to take a year 2 Diontae Johnson-like step forward this season. 800+ yards and 5+ touchdowns is a very reasonable projection for him this year. 

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Dynasty Targets

Posted on by Patrick Murphy

Dynasty Targets

Hilal Jihad Chami

@HJChami

Dynasty Target – Miles Boykin

In the #FantasyFootball world of 2020, where #ZeroRB is declared dead, you, dynasty savant, need dirty, cheap Wide Receiver investments with all the upside you can muster in your dynasty portfolios.

You need an edge to ruin your league-mate’s dreams, a secret monstrosity that has a 98th Percentile Speed Score, a 99th Percentile Burst Score, a 90th Percentile Agility Score, a 99th Percentile Catch Radius, with a highest percentage of routes run beyond the sticks in 2019, who joined an exclusive Combine group of only Matt Jones, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, D.K. Metcalf, and himself last year.

Thanks to his team adding a Wide Receiver in the third round of the 2020 NFL draft, you have a tiny window of opportunity to buy now.

Did you already miss out on second year bumps for players like Alshon Jeffrey, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, DJ Chark, Kenny Golladay, and Michael Gallup? Do you really want to miss out on the next one?

Get Miles Boykin now, before he becomes a fantasy football household name. Boykin said he’s already working out with Lamar Jackson, so you’ll run out of time soon.

Clint Hale

@DeviantDyNASTY

Dynasty Target – Chris Herndon

In 2018, as a rookie fourth round pick catching passes from fellow rookie Sam Darnold, Herndon still managed to haul in 39 receptions and finished Top-10 among qualifying tight ends in both yards per reception and yards per target. Herndon appeared set to continue his upward trajectory in 2019. Instead, he played just one game after serving a suspension the first 4 games of the season and then suffering hamstring and rib injuries which ended his season.

Looking back to 2018, Herndon played 23.5-percent of his snaps in the slot and finished Top-12 among qualifying tight ends with 3.1 Slot Fantasy Points per game. Herndon’s impressive 2018 season ranks as one of the top rookie tight end seasons of the past several years. Since 2014, the only tight ends to eclipse 500 yards as rookies are Herndon, George Kittle, Evan Engram, Mark Andrews and Noah Fant.  

Many fantasy gamers are haunted by last season’s “Bridge to Herndon” strategy gone wrong. However, this offseason the Jets took an offensive tackle in round 1 of the NFL Draft and added two field stretching receivers in Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims. With the Jets low on strong pass catching options for Darnold, Herndon profiles as an ideal discount bounce back candidate to target in dynasty leagues, especially since he will be paired with the blossoming Darnold through at least 2021.

Paul Diamond

@PaulDiamond18

Dynasty Target – Marquise “Hollywood” Brown

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is currently being selected as the 33rd WR in dynasty startups, right after Brandin Cooks and right before Will Fuller, according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com. Brown, a 2019 first round pick, will be just 23 years old at the start of the season and is already entrenched as the #1 wide receiver in a Ravens offense that will be high powered for years to come. I expect to see a higher volume of passing attempts in this offense as Lamar Jackson gains experience and the Ravens attempt to limit his rushing attempts. Brown figures to be the main beneficiary of that.

The Ravens had one of the highest play action rates in the NFL last year, and that play action will continue to be a staple of their offense. Brown is the perfect play action weapon, as his speed and deep route running are perhaps his two best attributes.

Alex Johnson

@A_JohnsonFF

Dynasty Target – Marvin Jones

When we think of dynasty targets, 30-year-old wide receivers don’t often come to mind. But, Marvin Jones is too good of a value to not buy, even in dynasty leagues. Jones is entering the final season of a five-year, $40 million contract he signed with the Lions back in 2016. Over the course of that deal, Jones has accumulated 3,318 receiving yards and 27 touchdowns in 53 games. That includes his 2019 campaign when he went for 779 yards and nine touchdowns on 62 receptions (92 targets) and a 12.6 yards per reception average. He missed the final three games with an ankle sprain. His nine touchdowns were tied for the second-most in the NFL at the time of the injury. Jones managed to score the second-most fantasy points of his career and finish among the top-20 wide receivers in points per game despite dealing with backup quarterbacks Jeff Driskel and David Blough over the second half. 
 
Jones’ 94.1-percent snap share was among the highest in the NFL and he was efficient with his opportunities. He turned his 92 targets (20.2-percent Target Rate) into a 67.4-percent Catch Rate while averaging 2.11 fantasy points per opportunity which was the 15th highest rate among wideouts. He also found himself in the top-15 in Production Premium and Target Premium. Equally impressive, is that he was efficient while seeing an average target distance of over 14 yards, including 19 deep targets and 684 Completed Air Yards. Jones can attribute his efficiency to little competition at the line
of scrimmage from opposing cornerbacks. He played 20-percent of his snaps from the slot which led to a 4.84 yards of cushion average, the eighth most in the league.
 
The Lions have one of the most consolidated offenses for fantasy and Jones presents a safe floor of production as the second option in the passing attack behind Kenny Golladay. Second-year tight end T.J. Hockenson will likely see a bump in targets but that will impact Danny Amendola’s looks more than it will Jones’. With Matthew Stafford back in the fold, Jones will again be one of the more reliable WR3s in 2020, and with a dynasty startup ADP outside the top-130 (per DLF), he is an incredible value for any win-now team.

Michael Rocco

@Rocky10302

Dynasty Target – Drew Lock

Drew Lock offers tremendous value going into the 2020 season.  In dynasty startup leagues he is the 18th Quarterback being drafted.  Lock made the most of his five starts to close out the 2019 season totalling 7 TDs for 1,020 yards with a respectable 89.7 QB Rating.  He also led the Broncos to a 4-1 record during his five starts. Based on Lock’s strong close to 2019 along with an array of exciting young weapons, Lock has QB1 upside for your dynasty drafts in 2020 and beyond. 

 

The Broncos awarded Lock with new weapons over the offseason which should help set up a strong sophomore season.  Electric rookie Jerry Jeudy was selected with the fifteenth pick in the 2020 draft along with KJ Hamler in the third round.  These exciting rookies will bolster Lock’s targets that already included Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant.  The Broncos also added Melvin Gordon to an already crowded running back room consisting of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. This offensive core of receivers, running backs and tight ends might be one of the best in the NFL. 

 

The Broncos also took the important step of enhancing their offensive line going into 2020.  They bolstered a weak offensive line that ranked 25th in pass protection last season according to Football Outsiders.  The Broncos added prized free agent Right Guard Graham Glasgow from the Lions to protect Lock.  They also invested a third round pick in Center Lloyd Cushenberry from LSU.  This pass protection should ensure Lock is able to effectively utilize his weapons. 

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Dynasty – Players I’m Buying

Posted on by Patrick Murphy

Dynasty – Players I’m Buying

Leonard Fournette

Dynasty ADP - 3.6

Why he’s low:

When you’re looking for buy lows in Dynasty, you first have to understand why the fantasy community is lower on a player than you are.  In Fournette’s case, he suffered multiple hamstring injuries in his sophomore season that left him playing in only 8 games, crushing his owners fantasy prospects in the process.  In addition to that, Fournette hasn’t gotten any good press recently.  It’s been rumored the Jaguars are not happy with Fournette and are not committed to him long term.

Why i’m buying:

Fournette turned in a rookie season of 268 carries, 36 receptions, 1,342 yards, and 10 touchdowns, that doesn’t happen by chance.  Being drafted with the fourth overall pick, Fournette is an elite talent with draft capital to back it up, playing in a system that is built to run the ball (1st in team run plays in 2017).  This isn’t a projection, it already happened, go check out his rookie year game log.  The only real concern with Fournette is can he stay healthy.   I expect Fournette to fall somewhere between his healthy rookie year and his injury plagued sophomore season.  If he plays for 12 games next year he’ll maintain his value, possibly even go up in ADP.  If he plays in 16 games your looking at a first round dynasty start up pick in 2020.  Think about that, if he just stays healthy for a full season, you’re getting a first round startup pick in the third round. Time to buy.

Kyler Murray

Dynasty ADP - QB16

Why he’s low:

Traditionally rookie QBs do not produce at a high level, Mayfield was great last year and finished as QB16 on the season.  His weapons are an aging Larry Fitzgerald, unproven sophomore Christian Kirk, and a bunch of rookies.  On top of that he has one of the worst O-lines in football protecting him of which of can’t even see over because he is just 5’10”.

Why i’m buying:

Kyler Murray has one of the highest QBRs in college football history at 95.8, no need to worry if he is good at football.  While there may be a transition period as he adjusts to NFL defenses, this is typically easier for mobile quarterbacks like Kyler who ran for 1,000 yards and 12 TDs in his senior season at Oklahoma.  This mobility will mitigate his offensive line struggles as we’ve already seen for years with Russell Wilson.  The biggest reason to buy Kyler Murray is his scheme.  The new head coach for the Cardinals Kliff Kingsbury is coming from Texas Tech where he ran an Air Raid offensive system.   This means Kyler Murray is going to throw, throw, and throw some more.  Kingsbury’s had a top 10 passing offense each of 6 years at Texas Tech, including over 300 passing yards per game.  He knows how to coach quarterbacks too (Pat Mahomes and Baker Mayfield).  Kingsbury was eventually fired at Texas Tech because his defenses were awful, and if this continues at the NFL level it will only help Kyler since he’ll be forced into shootouts.  Kyler is a top 8 dynasty QB and is the best buy low in superflex formats.

Royce Freeman

Dynasty ADP - 5.7

Why he’s low:

Freeman got beat out by undrafted free agent Philip Lindsay in his rookie year.  If Lindsay isn’t going anywhere, what does this mean for Freeman’s future?  Why would we bet on Freeman to beat out undrafted Lindsay when he couldn’t do it last year after being drafted in the 3rd round?

Why i’m buying:

Lindsay is talented, but so is Freeman, and only Freeman has the profile of a feature back.   Lindsay weighed in at 184 pounds as a rookie, 184 pound running backs are not feature backs in the NFL.  Not only is he bound to get hurt, but the Broncos know Lindsay can’t sustain this type of workload.  They will give Freeman another shot at the lead back role, especially given the draft capital invested in him (3.07).  Freeman has a great prospect profile with a dominator rating 30.4%, 87th percentile speed score, and 85th percentile agility score, expect him to take the lead back role from Lindsay mid-season and not look back.

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